Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement emerging as focus of U.S. presidential election (Sep. 20, 2016)

米国の大統領選挙でトランプ氏が勝利するとは思わなかった。9月にワシントン市内と南部アーカンソー州を大学の調査で回った。その時の経験を踏まえて、選挙直前の10月25日付日本農業新聞に「米国の選挙で異例なことに自由貿易が大きな焦点になっている」と書いた。ひしひしと米国の人たちの気持ちが伝わってきたが、そこからトランプの当選という事態を思い描くことはできなかった。 ワシントンで会ったエスタブリッシュメントの人たちも同じだった。

ただし、アーカンソー州の人たちは率直に共和党支持で、いろいろと不満を持ちながらもトランプに投票すると話していた。もっと素直な目で見れば違った書き方ができたのかもしれない。

20年前、フロリダ州のAlachua countyというところにいた。フロリダ州は共和党支持が強いが、同郡はフロリダ大学があり、そこだけはブルーの民主党支持。大学関係者もエスタブリッシュメントなんだろう。

Posted on 2016-10-25 by The Japan Agrinews

[By Masaru Yamada, The Japan Agricultural News Special Senior Writer]

Television programs are showing Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton all day long. Major newspapers are busy reporting about them. Staying in the United States for the past two weeks, I can feel that the momentum is growing towards the presidential election, with the election day coming in November.

What surprised me was the fact that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal has become one of the major issues in the election campaign. Until about two years ago, the only place one could hear the word “TPP” was in parts of Washington, D.C. I’m sure 99 percent of Americans did not know about the agreement.

A person close to U.S. Congress who is well-versed in trade issues joked that public attention towards the issue in Japan and the U.S. is now reversed. He told me he was stunned when his mother, who lives in a countryside where even postal delivery is not available, called him up more than a year ago to tell him that the TPP agreement would have an adverse effect on employment. More people in the U.S. are beginning to feel that over-dependence on free trade is taking away jobs in the nation, leading to collapse of the good old American society.

What is attracting special attention recently is the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that took effect 20 years ago. The agreement, launched by the U.S., Canada and Mexico to create a trilateral trade bloc, has served as a precedent for the TPP framework. After NAFTA came into force, much of the U.S. manufacturing sector shifted to Mexico and America was left with low-paying jobs such as fast food shop staff. Wealth gap widened.

Because I wanted to know what then President Bill Clinton told the people about NAFTA when it was signed, I visited the William J. Clinton Presidential Library in Arkansas to check the records of his past remarks.

Clinton said the agreement can bring about a rosy future for Americans, including new export opportunities for small and medium-size firm owners, stressing that there is no way America would lose in global competition, because the country has realized technological innovations in the field of auto manufacturing and computers.

However, many of the people ended up finding themselves in a situation different from what the president had promised. To scoop up such disillusioned voters, the two presidential election candidates both say they are against the TPP agreement.

Rosy pledges regarding the TPP pact are often heard also in Japan. In order not to have any regrets, we have to think again the merits and demerits of the agreement.

#english