農家のトランプ支持揺るがず(中間選挙)

9日付で米中間選挙の関連解説記事を日農に書いた。トランプ支持は揺るがず。ただ、アイオワ州の下院選挙(4議席)で3つが民主党に渡ったことを「異変」と書いた。ポールに話を聞いたことは下にも書いたが、コメントを入れた。パデュー大学が景況感(10月)を6日に発表。あっとびっくりで農家の景況感は大幅に改善されていた。特に未来に対して楽観的。

農村部のキリスト教会のネットワークの話は割愛された。長いのでやむを得ないが、コアな話ではある。下はPerdue Universityのリリース。丁度中間選挙当日だった。なぜか記事に入れた日付がカットされていた。

Ag Barometer Rebounds in October Reports | Tuesday, November 6th, 2018

James Mintert and Michael Langemeier

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rebounded in October to a reading of 136—a 22-point increase in the index compared to September—leaving the barometer nearly equal to its level one year ago. This month’s recovery in the barometer was underpinned by improved perceptions of both current conditions and future expectations as the Index of Current Conditions rose 19 points to a reading of 115 and the Index of Future Expectations rose 24 points to a reading of 146. Month-to-month shifts in barometer readings continue to be quite large as U.S. agricultural producers are buffeted by shifts in major commodity prices and news about trade negotiations with key ag trade partners.

Figure 1. Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, October 2015-October 2018.Long Description Figure 1. Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, October 2015-October 2018.

Although both current sentiment and future expectations rose in October, it is a relatively positive view of the future that is really underpinning the Ag Economy Barometer. This month’s Index of Future Expectations reading of 146 pushed the index back to the peak attained this past spring before the ag trade conflict with China erupted. In contrast the Index of Current Conditions, even with this month’s rebound, remains well below the levels recorded in winter and spring 2018.